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A new scientific analysis suggests that the pace of global warming has increased significantly over the past decade. According to a study published in Geophysical Research Letters by U.S. statistician Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the planet has warmed far faster since 2015 than in the preceding decades.
From 1970 to 2015, global temperatures rose by an average of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. But between 2015 and 2024, that rate jumped to roughly 0.35 degrees per decade. An independent climate expert described the study as a “well‑executed analysis.”
Removing Natural Variability Reveals Clear Acceleration
While it is undisputed that Earth has been warming for decades—and that 2023 and especially 2024 were the hottest years on record—scientists have long debated whether the warming trend itself is speeding up. Natural fluctuations, including volcanic activity, solar cycles, and the El Niño climate pattern, can temporarily amplify or dampen global temperatures, making long‑term trends harder to detect.
To address this, Foster and Rahmstorf adjusted global temperature records to remove these natural influences. Even after these corrections, 2023 and 2024 remain the warmest years ever measured, though slightly less extreme.
Rahmstorf explained that once natural factors are removed, the underlying warming trend becomes clearer: “We can now show for the first time a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming after 2015,” Foster added. By reducing the “noise” of natural variability, the long‑term signal stands out more sharply.
Implications for the 1.5‑Degree Target
The study does not attempt to identify the causes of the acceleration. However, if the current trend continues, the world could reach the 1.5‑degree threshold set in the Paris Agreement as early as 2028 or 2029. That limit is considered crossed only once global temperatures remain above it for several consecutive years.
“How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how fast we reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” Rahmstorf said.
Experts Call the Methodology Sound
Helge Gößling, a climate scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), praised the study’s approach. “The method is sensible for filtering out natural fluctuations and arriving at more robust conclusions,” he said. The effects of solar cycles, El Niño events, and volcanic eruptions have been observed for decades, making them relatively well understood.
Gößling also pointed to another factor likely contributing to recent warming: a decline in atmospheric aerosols. Measures in China since the late 2000s and stricter regulations on sulfur emissions from shipping have significantly reduced aerosol pollution. Because aerosols can enhance cloud formation and exert a cooling effect, their reduction has removed a “masking” influence that previously offset some warming.
While Gößling expects the aerosol‑related boost in temperatures to level off over time, he agrees with the study’s broader conclusion. “The global temperature increase has very likely accelerated,” he said. “I would sign off on that.”
- source: APA/picture: pixabay.com
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